The news is out: Former NYC Mayor and current media mogul/billionaire, Michael Bloomberg, is considering a Presidential bid once again.
He mulled over an independent run in 2008 and 2012, although it seems that this time he’s much more serious, saying he’d be willing to spend $1 Billion of his own money to finance his run (details courtesy of the New York Times).
But what exactly would a Bloomberg Presidential bid/Bloomberg Presidency mean for America?
Let’s start with just the bid, assuming he won’t get elected. We have two scenarios:
A. Bloomberg runs as a third-party candidate, taking more support from the Democratic base of voters than the Republican base, thereby injuring a Clinton or Sanders Democratic nominee.
B. Bloomberg throws his hat in for the Democratic nomination just before the caucuses, and possibly wins. If he doesn’t, he might run independently anyway.
In Scenario A, the Democratic nominee (whether Clinton or Sanders) would lose much of the moderate and far left crowd to Bloomberg. As Mayor of NYC, Bloomberg has supported both raising and lowering taxes in order to achieve optimal growth and balance budgets. However, his idea is to balance the budget at all costs, which he did in NYC by raising the property tax to an astronomical 18.5%.
Now that’s a little much for my taste.
He also supports higher taxes on the rich, much like Sanders and Clinton, but a specific tax plan hasn’t been seen from yet as he hasn’t officially announced his run.
But what else? He would get HUGE support from the gun control crowd. He co-founded the ‘Mayors Against Illegal Guns’ coalition, a very large group of United States mayors supporting heavier gun legislation and restriction. When it comes to social issues, Bloomberg may also have Hillary and Bernie beat. He has been a steadfast supporter of Gay Rights, Abortion Rights, and Education reform since he came on to the political scene.
When it comes down to it, Bloomberg hurts the Democrats as an independent more than he hurts the Republicans. While some Republican voters might be interested in voting for Bloomberg, the vast majority will maintain their support for a Republican Candidate.
Scenario B gives us a different story. All of the Mainstream Media has assumed so far that Mike would run as a third-party candidate. But there are still 8 days until the Iowa Caucuses, giving the billionaire a chance to throw his hat in for the Democratic nomination.
Now, let’s say he tries Scenario B and gets the nod from the Democrats…is that good or bad for the Republicans?
Bad. Very bad.
Bloomberg would be a hit with the Democrats and moderate Republicans, maybe even winning over some of the less stalwart conservatives who would refuse to support Trump, and instead vote Bloomberg. We also can’t forget that Trump (assuming he is the nominee) has an extremely large Liberal Democrat/Moderate base of supporters (article and stats courtesy of RealClearPolitics) that Bloomberg could easily draw away.
Even with Cruz as the nominee, Bloomberg would still take all of the Democratic vote and even some of the Republican vote considering how much the establishment and many stalwart conservative Republicans hate Cruz (and Trump for that matter).
I’m pretty convinced, however, that this former NYC Mayor will be running independently if at all. He would have a better chance at winning the White House as a third-party candidate, simply because it’s near impossible for him to get the Democratic nomination with the Caucuses so close.
Assuming he wins the White House, Americans would be in for an interesting 4-8 years. We could see a continuance of Obama’s gun and climate policies, but also see a new and strange tax structure different from anything this country has ever seen. It probably wouldn’t be very nice on the pocketbooks of U.S. citizens, especially those of the upper-middle class, but it could probably be good for big corporations and businesses in order to boost economic growth. This is all speculation, but a Bloomberg Presidency might change the way our country works a little bit, probably in a less than stellar way. We’ll just have to wait and see what his plans are (if he runs), so check back in a few weeks and we’ll have an analysis for you.
So, our conclusion: An independent Bloomberg run would do more good for the Republicans than the Democrats, as Mike would pull more from Hillary or Bernie’s base than Trump or Cruz’s. Should he win the Presidency, we could see some typically democratic/liberal policies enacted in terms of social and environmental issues, but we could also see some tax and economic plans a little different than what ALL other candidates are proposing. Overall, a Bloomberg run would be a good thing for the Republicans, but a Bloomberg Presidency for anyone?
Eh. I would give it B- at best.